Weekend Box Office Forecast: Tenet and Holdovers Aim to Continue Trend of Soft Declines

Weekend Box Office Forecast: Tenet and Holdovers Aim to Continue Trend of Soft Declines

We’re still in the early weeks of what’s becoming obvious will be an extended recovery process for the domestic box office. Once again, all eyes will focus on how Christopher Nolan’s Tenet holds up in its third full domestic frame (fourth if counting Canada’s debut in late August). The Warner Bros. tentpole eased just 29 percent last weekend with a $6.7 million domestic frame, coming off what’s projected to have been a $9.44 million three-day wide release as part of the Labor Day frame. That brought the North American total to $29.5 million through 17 days of play. The combination of official studio reporting and reverse-engineering to determine the film’s true first wide weekend gross proved to be in line with (and on the higher end of) our projections detailed in last week’s forecast. Tenet‘s domestic performance has become the target of divisive opinions regarding the progress of theatrical re-openings in the United States, exacerbated by the studio’s delay of Wonder Woman 1984 from October 2 to Christmas Day later this year. By contrast to the muted domestic start, Nolan’s epic has earned $207.5 million globally through this past Sunday — meaning its $178 million from international earnings represents nearly 86 percent of the film’s total box office thus far. Hopes on the domestic front were certainly for a higher result by this point, but the soft decline last weekend was the first verifiable evidence that expectations for a leggy run ...
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