US coronavirus pandemic could be over as early as November, predictive model shows
The coronavirus pandemic in the United States could be over as early as mid-November, new modeling has shown.
Researchers at Singapore University of Technology and Design have created a complex model predicting the exact date the pandemic will end in the US, UK, and other countries around the world.
According to the data, the US is on track to be coronavirus-free by November 11, while the UK could see an earlier end date of September 30.
The model predicts the trajectory of the spread of the virus over time while tracking the actual number of new confirmed cases per day in a given country, as of May 12.
However, researchers noted the predictions by nature are likely to be uncertain due to the complexity of the virus as well as other factors including the restrictions and testing protocols in place in a country.
In the US, changes in predictions were tracked over a one-week period and found to be relatively stable, suggesting a 'long time to reach its theoretical ending'.
'The estimated curves of USA for a week together, showing a high stability, while one might still want additional policies or actions to further shorten the tails of the curves,' the report states.
The study also found predictive monitoring in early May showed the US - and second worst-hit country Brazil - could still suffer for the remainder of the year, without stricter restrictions or a vaccine.
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