This historical trend points to strong fourth quarter gains — and 2020 may be no exception

This historical trend points to strong fourth quarter gains — and 2020 may be no exception

According to Bell, the S&P 500 typically sees an average gain of 3.9% in the fourth quarter — making it the best three months of the year. "There's a lot to worry about," she told CNBC's " Trading Nation " on Friday. "But I am cautiously optimistic." Despite stimulus gridlock, election uncertainty and the coronavirus' path, the firm's chief investment strategist believes it's possible the S&P 500 will follow the positive historical trend. "We can still have a good fourth quarter once we get past some of these uncertainties that are in the marketplace," she said. "So, while we may not get 3.9%, I'm going to try to remain cautiously optimistic here." However, with just 12 trading days in the books in the fourth quarter, the S&P 500 is already up 3.6%. Bell points out the bulk of the gains usually come in November and December, not October. "Volatility is going to continue to be a key component in through the next couple months," she added. "It's a little difficult to blindly trust historical trends in a year like this. We're up against a lot in the next couple of months." One of the biggest risks she highlights is fallout from the coronavirus aid package delay. "The question mark is what is going to happen on the fiscal side as far as stimulus or fiscal aid goes for the consumer," said Bell, a CNBC contributor. So far, there appears to be little impact. The latest ...
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