State polling problematic — again | TheHill
To this day people still think that the polls had it wrong about Trump in 2016. That’s not really the case. Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton'Unmasking' Steele dossier source: Was confidentiality ever part of the deal? Would Kamala Harris be disloyal if she were VP? Trump campaign cancels ad buys to review messaging strategy: report MORE 48.2 percent to 46.1 percent — well within the margin of error for most national polls (Rassmussen was within one point). The problem was two-fold. First, the media and the Trump-hating pundits forgot that polling margin of error is real. Second, the same crowd forgot that the President is elected state-by-state via the Electoral College — and much of the state-level polling in the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was off the mark.
The current election looks like it could be more of the same, with Trump running unaccountably further behind in the state polls against his national polling. This is cold comfort for Team Trump as he remains behind Biden by an average of 8.3 points in the 538 average and 7.4 points in the RealClearPolitics average. Using the more generous RealClearPolitics average of Biden leading 49.4 percent to 42 percent, Trump is down 4.1 points from 2016 and Biden is up 1.2 points over Clinton. (Note that any incumbent President should be expected to trail his prior performance as there is always a segment of undecided voters that exists in polling ...
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