Investors fear US election won't be decided for weeks -- or even months
New York (CNN Business) Investors are trying to figure out what's ahead for the stock market -- much of which will depend on who's elected US president. But it could be weeks or even months before one of the candidates concedes, according to new research.
A team of "superforecasters" -- analysts with particularly good track records -- for the firm Good Judgment think there's only a 16% probability President Donald Trump or Joe Biden will concede by the end of election week, says CEO Warren Hatch, who shared data exclusively with CNN Business.
They forecast there's a 43% chance there won't be an official winner until Thanksgiving. And the global market and economic superforecasters -- whom Good Judgment doesn't name -- think there's a 37% percent probability that a concession will come sometime between late November and Inauguration Day on January 20, 2021.
The growing worries about a lack of election outcome clarity for some time could lead to further volatility on Wall Street and make the disputed 2000 presidential race look like child's play.
The forecasters said there's a 4% chance the election outcome may still not be clear by Inauguration Day. In that event, the House speaker, currently Nancy Pelosi, could become president
What should investors do if there's no election outcome until early 2021?
Market experts say not to panic. Although the uncertainty could be damaging to the market (and perhaps the broader economy) in the short term, there will eventually be an official outcome to the ...
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