Coronavirus Pandemic Has Peaked in India, Around 30% Population has Developed Antibodies, Claims Govt Pan...
India is likely to have already passed the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in September and cases are going to plateau further, claimed a panel of scientists and doctors, based on mathematical and statistical forecasting on the spread of the infectious disease. The panel also claimed that the pandemic can be controlled by end of February 2021 with minimal active symptomatic cases if all protocols are followed and if government does not relax activities further.
The Department of Science and Technology constituted the panel in May to help monitor the future transmission of infection, aid decisions involving health system readiness and other mitigation measures.
These were preliminary results of the government modelling study and the detailed results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal next week.
The panel used the real-time dataset to make forecasts on the transmission, to gauge effect of the lockdown, migrations and also project future scenarios based on the unlocking measures being followed all over the country.
The expert panel’s modelling claimed that the pandemic had passed its peak during the month of September, though that was not a reason to relax. The panel also claimed that 30 per cent of the country’s population was already projected to have antibodies, which indicated that they had been infected with the virus. By August-end, 14 per cent were likely to have developed antibodies. The panel’s projections on the prevalence of the infection was twice that of what Indian Council of Medical Research had found out through the second national sero-survey ...
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