Coronavirus LIVE Updates: India Sees 61,871 New Covid-19 Cases & 1,033 Deaths in 24 Hrs; RLD's Jayant Chaudhary Tests Positive for Virus
Committee on national supermodel on Covid-19 appointed by Principle Scientific Adviser share results of their projections based on mathematical modelling and the actual cases reported. The following are some of the key findings.
- Pandemic has peaked but it is not a reason for us to relax. Cumulative mortality project to be less than 0.04% of total infected.
- 30% population projected to have antibodies at present, was around 14% in Aug-end. So, the committee's estimate is double that of findings presented as part of second sero survey of ICMR.
- Total of projected symptomatic infections will be 106 lakhs. Currently, it is estimated to be around 66 lakhs.
- Infectious would have had gone through the roof if lockdown was not imposed. If we did not have a lockdown, the peak would have been 15 times higher in the beginning or middle of June. If we had delayed by two months, peak would have been smaller.
- Lockdown reduced peak load on our system, we pushed the peak to September, beginning end of June. Enabled our system to handle the pandemic much better.
- Between April to 12 June, cases increased a 100 times. If we had not imposed lockdown, cases would have had increased 10,000 times compared to actual reported cases.
-There was no sharp rise or multiplier effect due to migrant labourers. Compared to the projections of this committee, the actual cases did not rise.
- If migration had been permitted before the lockdown, there would have had been a huge impact. Quarantining migrants wherever they ...
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