Donald Trump’s luck hasn’t run out - and this is why, says PATRICK BASHAM
The Democracy Institute’s new poll for the Sunday Express finds Trump in a very competitive race for the national popular vote with his Democratic opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden. But American presidential elections aren’t national votes. They’re decided by separate elections in each of the 50 states that make up the Electoral College. The Electoral College is Trump’s best friend. It’s weighted in favour of the smaller, rural states where Trump’s most popular and is weighted against the larger, urban states where he’s least popular.
Luckily for Trump, he can be reelected in the Electoral College while losing the popular vote (as in 2016). Biden needs to beat Trump by a few points in the popular vote to overcome Trump’s Electoral College advantage. President Dwight Eisenhower said, “I'd rather have a lucky general than a smart general. They win battles.” As a candidate, Trump’s been lucky twice. Four years ago, he faced off with charmless Hillary Clinton, then mired in scandal and hobbled by campaign rust, which negated Trump’s own vulnerabilities. Today, in Biden, he’s facing a career politician who first ran for president in the 1980s. His campaigning skills have demonstrably withered on the vine. Today, he’s truly a gaffe machine. Trump’s other advantage is perceived presidential leadership, including his positions on America’s most daunting challenges. Our poll confirms Americans see Trump as a strong leader. In a crisis, voters are looking for decisive leadership. They want to ...
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